Hey everyone,
Welcome back to another episode of Investing Counterpoint! It’s fantastic to be back with Daniel. We haven’t done this in a while – life gets busy – but it’s always a blast when we do.
Today, I want to rewind the clock. I don’t know if you remember getting hooked on gold and silver, but I know I did. The spark for this conversation was lit all the way back on November 4th, 2022.
It all started with Daniel’s initial thesis: Gold and silver were flowing out of the London vaults. He noticed unusual activity, something the mainstream wasn’t talking about. We picked up on that thread, started making our first videos about it, and ran with it. We always framed it within the context of risk management, and wow, has that discipline paid off.
Let me show you the data we presented back then. If you look at the chart, you can see the story unfold. Silver, in particular, took off like a rocket as we moved into 2023. That trend continued for both metals right into this year.
But here’s the kicker that no one is really pronouncing: the drawdown in silver has been almost shocking. While the outflows are still below historical peaks, the physical metal is moving.
So, let’s talk returns. This is the part that makes me smile.
Gold was at $1,681 per ounce when we started. Today? It’s $3,753. That’s a 32% return.
Silver has gone from around $19-20 to $45. That’s a stunning 33% return.
Fantastic, right?
Now, I know what you’re thinking. “But Bitcoin did 70%!” And you’re right. But here’s the reality check we saw unfolding: while gold and silver were climbing, Bitcoin was significantly falling. This was an unusual divergence.
If you’re looking for stability, you have to factor in volatility. Bitcoin’s volatility is insane—around 70%. Gold and silver? A much calmer ~20%. When you calculate the return per unit of volatility, gold and silver delivered 1.5 times the risk-adjusted return of Bitcoin. Your risk-reward for the metals was undeniably superior during this period.
There are real, solid reasons we liked these trades then, and as we dive into the world of AI, there are reasons to believe they still have a role to play going forward. We’re at highs, and I believe inflation is also propping up gold prices.
This wasn’t just luck; it was about spotting a fundamental signal in the noise. And this is just the beginning of the conversation.
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