The Forecast Folly: Why financial experts rarely stand the test of time
Present success does not indicate future outcomes The Power of Other Opinions What do experts say about predictions? Two types of experts In Brief Present success does not indicate future outcomes Predictions are a form of guessing, where sometimes the guessing is more educated than others, and a more educated guesser is not necessarily more accurate. Market predictions, in particular, tend more towards the guessing end of the spectrum with the more educated and higher profile prognosticator typically carrying more weight in public opinion. Particularly at the end of every year there are a lot of predictions about what the major changes and trends are in the markets, technology, the...Read More



