Election Day Commentary
If you have followed the polls you know that it is widely expected that Joe Biden will be the next president of the US. Two well-known poll aggregators, FiveThirtyEight and the Economist give Biden a 90% and 97% chance of victory on the eve of the election.
Lazy, Lazy, Lazy…Making Election Predictions Based on Faulty Assumptions
Still, so far, so good, nothing about that is particularly disagreeable. I can also envision some serious market volatility if the 2020 election is contested depending on circumstances.
Is the Prospect of a Biden Win Powering the Yuan?
People have been asking (a lot) for election scenarios. What will markets do if Biden wins? What will they do if Trump wins? And I have covered those topics here and here. As time ticks on and the situation changes (Supreme Court vacancy anyone?), prognostications may become further removed from actual results.
Contested Elections
We have had several clients ask for scenarios that pertain to the upcoming US presidential elections. Clearly there is a lot of uncertainty around an election that is more divisive than any in memory. While direct comparisons to other events in US history are hard to come by, we have certainly seen our fair share of contentious presidential elections.