{"id":6886,"date":"2020-09-11T11:35:13","date_gmt":"2020-09-11T16:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rixtrema.com\/blog\/?p=6886"},"modified":"2020-09-11T13:48:21","modified_gmt":"2020-09-11T18:48:21","slug":"contested-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rixtrema.com\/blog\/contested-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Contested Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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  1. Apathy to Action<\/a><\/strong><\/li>
  2. History of Contested US Elections<\/a><\/strong><\/li>
  3. What Can We Take from History?<\/a><\/strong><\/li>
  4. Is this the type of Contested Election People Are Concerned About?<\/a><\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    <\/div>\n\n\n\n

    We have had several clients ask for scenarios<\/em> that pertain to the upcoming US presidential elections<\/em>. Clearly there is a lot of uncertainty around an election<\/em> that is more divisive than any in memory. While direct comparisons to other events in US history are hard to come by, we have certainly seen our fair share of contentious presidential elections<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    As almost every reader of this post will remember, the last time the results of a US election<\/em> were contested was in 2000, featuring the famous \u2018hanging chad\u2019 debacle that defined the George W. Bush versus Al Gore contest. While many Americans, particularly those on the left, would say that election was extremely important to the path of the US, partisans at the time were less passionate about the outcome, and the decision of the Supreme Court decision to award W the presidency, while always controversial, was not met with the anger and rage that it seems many are expecting if the 2020 election<\/em> is con<\/a>tested.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Apathy to Action<\/h2>\n

     <\/p>\n

    From a Pew Research poll from earlier in the decade you can see that 49% of voters thought that the results of the 2000 election<\/em> was relatively inconsequential, or that \u2018Things will be the same\u2019 regardless of the winner. Though after being out of power for 8 years, Republicans were a bit more passionate about the victor with 56% saying it \u2018Really matters who wins\u2019, the electorate was about as indifferent as could be imagined.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Source: Pew Research<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Fast forward to the next election (2004), after 9\/11, Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq and the consequences of the election were deemed much more important to partisans and independents alike.<\/p>\n

    But in 2020, almost everyone is invested. A whopping 83% of voters think it \u2018really matters who wins\u2019 the upcoming election. And I would not be alone in arguing that everyone<\/em> has decided who they will vote for. I mean, what are undecideds waiting for? What will tip the balance for them? Almost everyone has picked a side, and almost everyone thinks the future of America hangs in the balance of this election.<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"the<\/p>\n

    Source: Pew Research<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The idea that the consequences of this election are higher and more important to the future of America<\/em> are the heart of why our clients are asking for election-based scenarios in such high numbers. But the questions are not generally run of the mill \u201cTrump\/Biden Wins\/Loses\u201d (though I admit we have received several of t<\/a>hose).<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    History of Contested US Elections<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/h2>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The questions center around a more troubling and difficult to model scenario where the election is contested \u2013 that the winner isn\u2019t immediately apparent or that both sides lay claim to victory. And this is a plausible scenario as there have been 4 US presidential elections<\/a> that have had contested results, so we can look to history as a guide.<\/p>\n